As the federal government faces a critical confidence vote on its budget on Monday, government whip Mark Gerretsen has stated that they are prepared for a potential election if necessary. In an interview on Sunday with Rosemary Barton Live, Gerretsen mentioned that the government has engaged with all opposition parties to address their budget concerns and seek their support. In the event that every Member of Parliament votes on Monday, the minority Liberals would require opposition backing to pass the budget and avoid an election.
Despite Gerretsen’s belief that Canadians are not inclined towards an election, he emphasized that the Liberal Party is primed for such an outcome. Gerretsen affirmed that all Liberal Members of Parliament will partake in the vote on Monday evening.
Following the recent move of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservative Party to the Liberals, the governing party secured an additional vote, bringing their total seats to 170, including the Speaker who would only vote in case of a tie. To pass the budget, the minority party would need to gather 172 votes if all MPs participate in the vote.
When the budget was initially presented earlier this month, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre expressed opposition to the Liberal fiscal policies, indicating that his party intends to unanimously oppose the motion. Similarly, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet reiterated his party’s stance against the budget, with all Bloc MPs planning to vote against it. With the NDP holding the balance with seven seats, their decision on the vote remains undisclosed.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May remains undecided on supporting the federal budget on Monday. Despite concerns about the budget’s climate policies, May has been in discussions with government representatives to potentially influence her vote. May acknowledged the public sentiment against an immediate election and expressed willingness to support the government in the confidence vote.
In the scenario where May votes in favor of the budget, the count would reach 170 votes, leaving the Liberals in need of at least one more opposition MP to secure passage. The option of abstaining from the vote could also impact the outcome, with the House Speaker potentially breaking a tie to pass the budget. While no party has indicated a willingness to abstain, an abstention from the NDP could be sufficient to pass the budget and prevent an election.
Furthermore, the strategy of having a small number of MPs abstain strategically could also prevent a triggered election while maintaining dissent against the budget among the majority of party members.