The El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to strengthen further until 2027 and could potentially become the most powerful event on record, heightening the risks of extreme weather patterns in the upcoming year, as per the World Meteorological Organization. During a news conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any previous occurrences witnessed in the last four decades. The UN weather agency has indicated a nearly 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, marking the first time such a high level of certainty has been expressed.
A robust El Niño event has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature distributions, leading to the escalation of extreme weather phenomena like typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized that the current El Niño situation is unprecedented and emphasized the warming of the planet’s waters.
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting from weakened trade winds. This natural phenomenon occurs every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and causing severe rainfall and drought conditions across Latin America. The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted soft commodity production in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
According to the WMO, El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of this year, with lingering effects that will extend into 2027 and contribute to elevated global temperatures in the following year. Saulo highlighted the WMO’s heightened preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of these developments.
Saulo underscored the WMO’s commitment to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and humanitarian systems to provide essential climate intelligence and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.