Researchers from Australia have developed the first-ever public tool designed to assess how fossil-fuel projects will influence climate change, utilizing a Canadian offshore oil initiative as a case study.
The newly created Carbon Impacts Tracer can project the climate effects of proposed mining operations, offshore oil rigs, and other energy ventures, detailing their contributions to global warming, glacial melting, and even human mortality rates.
“We can now connect the emissions tied to specific fossil-fuel projects to the level of warming they cause globally, which can then be correlated with particular consequences of that warming,” stated Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, during a virtual press briefing on Monday.
This online tool leverages anticipated carbon dioxide emission figures, typically derived from the proponents’ environmental assessments, to evaluate the project’s contribution to rising global temperatures.
It subsequently employs peer-reviewed research to determine the tangible effects of that temperature rise, including loss of coral reefs, declines in agricultural output, and job displacements.
The platform was launched on Monday, featuring case analyses of five Australian initiatives, one from the U.K., and another concerning the proposed Bay du Nord offshore oil project, which would mark Canada’s inaugural deepwater oil development approximately 500 kilometers east of St. John’s.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer site forecasts the potential effects of projects like Bay du Nord on various factors, including labor, agricultural production, and glacier reduction. (Carbon Impacts Tracer)
The Bay du Nord project, spearheaded by the Norwegian energy company Equinor, is anticipated to extract over 430 million barrels of oil reserves. According to the tool, CO2 emissions from Bay du Nord could reach 188 megatonnes over a span of 20 years, contributing an additional 0.00008 C to global temperatures.
Furthermore, the tool indicates that such CO2 emissions would subject over 111,000 additional individuals to extreme heat, resulting in 25 more heat-related fatalities in Europe alone.
The tracer estimates that Bay du Nord could potentially lead to a loss of 4.6 square kilometers of glaciers, causing sea levels to rise by 0.025 millimeters. It also predicts that approximately 2,100 jobs could be lost due to pollution from the project, with around 9,800 people pushed into extreme poverty.
Equinor did not provide an immediate response to a request for comments on Monday.
Climatologist Joel Finnis from Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador, who is not part of the tracer project but is involved with a local initiative assessing the impact of the province’s oil and gas sector, remarked that the tracer synthesizes findings from numerous studies, making them accessible to the general public.
Climatologist Joel Finnis warns that the Bay du Nord initiative could have significant environmental repercussions. (Darryl Murphy/CBC)
“It fundamentally challenges the arguments frequently made to justify the continuation and expansion of oil production,” he stated in an interview. “It serves as a poignant reminder that even what is often viewed as a minor project can have severe consequences for many lives and substantial financial costs, as well as significant environmental harm.”
Maria Nawaz, who leads the climate change accountability initiative at the Australian Human Rights Institute, University of New South Wales, informed reporters that it has historically been challenging to establish a connection between fossil fuel projects and their actual impacts. Most advocates claim their specific projects represent just a “drop in the ocean” regarding emissions.
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She expressed hope that the tracer would be utilized by governments, regulatory bodies, and community members when evaluating new projects. Nawaz anticipates it will enhance climate litigation aimed at holding both governments and corporations accountable for their emissions.
“Now, individual fossil fuel projects can be directly linked to additional warming and quantifiable human and ecological damages… This renders the ‘drop-in-the-ocean’ argument, which relies on the idea that the harm is negligible or unmeasurable, ineffective.”
Nawaz also envisions insurers employing this tool to assess project risks, while economists could analyze its potential economic repercussions.
The site focuses solely on estimating the impacts of proposed projects, excluding existing oil wells or mines, with plans to incorporate additional proposed developments as new data becomes available.
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