An inquiry is underway to determine if the temperature sensors at Paris airport were tampered with to influence online betting outcomes, shedding light on the increasing popularity of climate-related bets. Some users on Polymarket, an online betting platform, reaped substantial winnings as temperatures surged by 5 degrees Celsius in a single day recently. This incident has sparked discussions about the ethics of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where individuals can place bets on climate-related events such as hurricane intensity or the forecast for the hottest year ahead.
Climate betting, according to experts interviewed by CBC News, has the potential to advance climate science and even sway skeptics. Moran Cerf, a neuroscience and business professor at Columbia University, conducted a study where participants engaged in prediction markets concerning climate occurrences like California wildfires. The study revealed that individuals who participated in these markets displayed heightened awareness and concern about climate change, potentially influencing climate skeptics.
Despite the increasing occurrences of climate-related disasters, skepticism remains prevalent. A survey conducted in January 2025 by the Angus Reid Institute indicated that nearly a quarter of Canadians do not attribute climate change primarily to human activities. This skepticism persists even in the face of mounting evidence of climate change impacts.
Cerf highlighted that climate change poses challenges as its effects, such as rising sea levels and disruptions to food systems, are often distant in time and space. Prediction markets offer a solution by providing immediate feedback on events through real-time probability updates and payouts, fostering more short-term impacts on participants.
Prediction markets differ from traditional gambling by enabling users to trade shares in potential outcomes rather than betting against a house. Mark Roulston, a climate scientist at the University of Lancaster, is using prediction markets to aggregate expert opinions on climate events, aiding in more accurate predictions and incentivizing model development.
The use of prediction markets in Canada is evolving, with certain types of markets gaining regulatory approval. Wealthsimple, a fintech company, has been authorized to offer contracts related to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends, excluding sports and election betting. The rise of climate-related betting, however, raises concerns among researchers like Cerf, who emphasize the need for platforms to prioritize educating users about climate change over profit motives.
The issue of data tampering, as seen in the Paris incident, adds another layer of complexity to the debate surrounding the utility of prediction markets in raising climate awareness.