The United States has been increasing military presence in the region and conducting strikes on alleged drug boats near Venezuela, raising questions about its strategy towards the country and President Nicolás Maduro. Analysts point out the lack of clarity and varying messages from the Trump administration regarding its goals and intentions in Venezuela.
There is uncertainty surrounding whether the administration’s ultimate aim is to have Maduro leave the country and how it plans to achieve this. Some observers find the messaging from the U.S. to be inconsistent and are unsure about the extent of pressure the U.S. is willing to apply.
Different factions within the administration have varying objectives, with some, like U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, focusing on regime change, while others seek a diplomatic resolution to advance broader U.S. interests in the region. The lack of a shared vision and coordination within the administration has led to ambiguity in its approach to Venezuela.
The intentional ambiguity in the U.S. strategy could be a tactic to unsettle Maduro and push him to make decisions favorable to the U.S., according to experts. The recent military actions, including strikes on drug boats and the deployment of troops, are part of the administration’s efforts to combat illegal drug supply routes linked to Venezuela.
While Trump has accused Venezuela of drug trafficking, experts point out that most fentanyl comes from Mexico, and the U.S.’s main concern with Venezuela is its alleged drug exports. The U.S. campaign in the region has faced legal and ethical scrutiny, with questions raised about its impact on Maduro and the broader system supporting him.
To bring about real change in Venezuela, experts emphasize the need to dismantle the entire network that sustains the current regime, which includes individuals within the government, military, and organized crime groups.
As the White House engages in negotiations with Maduro, there is a call for clearer communication on its plans for Venezuela. The differing accounts of recent interactions between Trump and Maduro highlight the strategic ambiguity in the administration’s approach, as it seeks a favorable outcome without a defined endpoint.