A recent survey conducted among Saskatchewan voters reveals a surge in support for the federal Liberals in Saskatoon and Regina, bringing about competitive races in these areas. However, Conservative backing remains strong throughout the province, as highlighted by Éric Grenier, an election poll tracker at CBC’s TheWrit.ca. Grenier noted the surprising close competition between the Liberals and Conservatives in the major cities, suggesting a potential shift in the traditional political landscape of southern Saskatchewan.
The exclusive poll, commissioned by the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association (SUMA) and carried out by Rubicon Strategy through an online survey of 747 Saskatchewan residents from April 5 to April 10, showed that 38% of respondents would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 25% indicated support for the Liberal Party of Canada. Additionally, 20% of voters remained undecided, and 11% expressed allegiance to the federal NDP.
In Saskatoon and Regina, the survey indicated a decline in Conservative support among decided voters, as Liberal backing increased, bringing the two parties within a five-point margin of each other. Specifically, in Regina, 42% of decided voters favored the Conservatives, while 37% backed the Liberals. Similarly, Saskatoon saw 43% support for the Conservatives and 38% for the Liberals.
Notably, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh made campaign stops in Saskatoon on April 9, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has yet to visit Saskatchewan during this election cycle. The shifting support dynamics, coupled with a decrease in NDP backing, could make the Liberals more competitive in certain ridings, although Grenier suggested that beyond Regina Wascana, the Liberals might not be favored to secure additional seats.
The survey also delved into leader likability, top policy concerns, and Canada’s trade relations with the U.S. According to Rubicon Strategy partner David Herle, the poll results indicate a narrowing gap between the Liberals and Conservatives in various Saskatchewan ridings, particularly in Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-University, Regina-Wascana, and Regina-Lewvan. Herle noted that voters’ views on how leaders handle issues like the Canada-U.S. trade war and President Trump’s policies could influence their support decisions, with a majority prioritizing protecting Canada over preventing Liberal victories.
Herle emphasized the significance of Saskatchewan’s economic ties with the U.S., particularly in sectors like energy, uranium, and potash, underscoring the province’s leverage in trade negotiations. The poll’s regional focus on Saskatchewan, as opposed to broader regional categorization, aimed to capture specific provincial sentiments and concerns, according to SUMA president Randy Goulden. Goulden highlighted the growing apprehension among residents regarding the impact of President Trump’s trade policies on living costs, emphasizing the need for sustained economic growth initiatives.
Additionally, SUMA’s policy priorities include dismantling inter-provincial trade barriers and exploring new export avenues for Saskatchewan products. The CBC’s Poll Tracker data aligns with the survey findings, projecting a lead for the Liberals nationally, with a high probability of a Liberal majority government. The evolving political landscape in Saskatchewan, shaped by economic considerations and leadership stances on international trade issues, underscores the province’s pivotal role in the upcoming federal election.