In the realm of Canadian politics, the act of MPs switching party allegiance has been met with a range of descriptors such as traitor, brave, shameful, or principled. Nevertheless, the historical record reveals that a key term that often doesn’t align with politicians who make this move is “re-electable.”
A recent revelation in Ottawa causing a stir was the announcement that long-serving Conservative member Chris d’Entremont would be joining the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney hinting at the possibility of others following suit. The phenomenon of floor-crossing in politics dates back to Confederation, but an analysis of past instances indicates that it frequently comes at a cost during elections.
According to Semra Sevi, an assistant professor in the University of Toronto’s political science department, switching parties poses a significant electoral risk that typically diminishes a politician’s chances of being re-elected. Sevi’s research, which tracked MPs who changed parties from Confederation to 2015, uncovered a trend where floor-crossers in the mid-20th century were able to maintain similar voting support following their party switch. However, since the 1970s, the electoral landscape has evolved, making survival outside of one’s original party increasingly challenging.
While there have been a few exceptions of successful transitions, the general consensus is that switching parties is often viewed as opportunistic, which can undermine an MP’s credibility with voters. D’Entremont, for instance, cited his dissatisfaction with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s leadership style as the driving force behind his decision to join the Liberals. The timing of such switches, like d’Entremont’s seven months post-election, can heavily influence how constituents perceive the move and its legitimacy.
Over the years, numerous MPs have made the switch in party affiliations, either becoming Independents, forming new parties, or aligning with former adversaries. Notable cases include Jenica Atwin, who transitioned from the Green Party to the Liberals in 2021, and Leona Alleslev, who moved from the Liberals to the Conservatives in 2018.
In assessing the potential outcomes for d’Entremont in Acadie-Annapolis, a constituency with a history of supporting both red and blue parties, the nuances of his decision as a more progressive conservative may resonate positively with voters. While there may be repercussions and criticisms for changing parties, there are currently no legal barriers preventing such shifts from occurring.
Looking back at significant floor-crossings in Canadian politics, names like Belinda Stronach and David Emerson stand out for their impactful moves. Stronach’s switch to the Liberals in 2005, affecting both her political career and personal relationships, and Emerson’s move to the Conservatives shortly after an election in 2006, sparked controversies and debates over ethical considerations in politics.
In conclusion, while the act of floor-crossing in Canadian politics is not uncommon, its implications on an MP’s re-electability and public perception remain key factors to consider when making such a significant political move.