Will Donald Trump follow through with his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on goods imported to the U.S. from Canada? Saskatchewan farmers aren’t sure, but they do know the threat alone is destabilizing enough.
The U.S. president-elect threatened this week to impose a 25 per cent tax on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, unless those countries curb the flow of drugs and migrants across their borders.
Kaitlyn Kitzan, whose family farm operation near Yorkton, Sask., includes grain and cattle, hopes the tariff threat is just a Trump negotiating tactic, but is worried it’s not a bluff.
“I feel like this is something that’s going to keep me up at night,” Kitzan said at the Agribition trade show in Regina. “As a farmer, where am I going to be able to market my grain and what is that pricing going to look like?”
Kitzan said she wants provincial and federal leaders to expand existing trade partnerships with other countries and explore untapped export opportunities.
“We’ve got some time so let’s be proactive,” Kitzan said. “Let’s start those conversations. Let’s start those reach-outs and see what we can do, because this would not be good for the Canadian ag industry.”
Saskatchewan sends about half of its exports into the United States — below the national average of 77 per cent, but enough that business owners in the province are understandably worried about the Trump tariffs, said Chris Dekker, president and CEO of the Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership (STEP).
“Anytime you put a barrier up to free trade with one of our largest markets there’s deep concern, and the biggest concern right now is the uncertainty it creates, and that’s being reflected in prices and certainly in the value of the dollar,” Dekker said.
But Saskatchewan exporters might have an ace up their sleeve if Trump imposes tariffs. Dekker said the province’s exports might be somewhat protected because Americans need the province’s raw materials.
Saskatchewan’s top exports to the United States are crude oil, potash and canola oil.
“These are products that the U.S. needs to grow their economy,” Dekker said. “These aren’t luxury goods or manufactured goods like TVs or cellphones, so they will need what we have.”
A 25 per cent tariff on those goods will push prices up for American consumers, and that won’t go over well, Dekker said.
WATCH | Sask. farmer says Trump’s proposed tariffs will keep her ‘up at night’:
Farmers say they’re worried about U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all products entering the country from Canada. Saskatchewan exports more than six billion dollars worth of agri-food products to the United States per year.
Brett Spray runs a mixed operation near Kelvington that includes cattle and cereal crops. He said the threatened tariffs are worrisome, because no sector of the economy will be untouched.
“Those tariffs are going to be on aluminum and steel and just the country as a whole, not just ag,” Spray said.
“There’s going to be a lot of uncertainty in the markets.… Hopefully some of the federal government programs will help soften that blow.”
Spray also hopes Trump is just bluffing.
“You hope it’s kind of rhetoric and that he’s just angling for something else,” Spray said. “Maybe he changes his mind and doesn’t go through with it.”
Legislature reaction
Both Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck told reporters on Tuesday that a 25 per cent tariff would have a big impact on the province’s economy.
Moe said the impact would be devastating for Saskatchewan, as the province exports about 60 per cent of product to the U.S.
He said it starts with working as a nation to address one of Trump’s main concerns — border security.
“I think Canadians would largely support an increased investment in border security,” the premier said.